Santoprete,Giancarlo. Wang,Juan.
Prospects of the energy demand. A problem for the coming generations.
Pisa, Ediz.ETS
2008,
cm.14x21,
pp.80,
brossura
Testo in inglese.
Energy is certainly the most important resource, factor of production, commodity in the world economy, and human beings always try to obtain it in increasing quantities to ensure their own survival, to obtain more goods and services, to improve their quality of life and well being. Every stage of development is defined by a specific amount of energy. A mode to confirm this link is the positive relationship between Gross Demand Product per capita and Total Primary Energy Consumption per capita.
Obviously, the consumption of energy is linked to the population dynamics too. It is forecasted that the world population will be 8 billion people in 2025. Increased population means increased energy consumption.
But it is unrealistic to snatch energy unlimitedly and at the same time, energy generation and utilization have, in every case, an environmental impact and cause exhaustion of resource.
Based on this background the Authors aim to forecast the probable world energy demand in the future. According to the Authors' scenario, the world energy demand will be 18 Gtoe in 2025, in which 8 Gtoe for developed countries (7.1 Gtoe in 2005) and 10 Gtoe for developing countries (4.3 Gtoe in 2005).
In this scenario China and India play a significant role because of their prominent economic growth and population proportion in the future, which means a revolution in the world energy market and then a new international order in the future.
The advent of an international energy policy is expected to demonstrate a deferred refund of contributions that some poor people had to give (their liberty and even life) for the benefit of most rich countries in the past.
The Authors regard this international equity with great importance because it can alleviate the heavy problems of the future generations.
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